The deep ball. It’s the most fun thing to watch a quarterback do. All kids dream of being able to push the ball downfield and rack up huge stats like the pros. And yet, there’s not a lot of research dedicated to this area of football.

That’s where this comes in.

Welcome to the 2017-18 edition of the Deep Ball Project, where every qualified throw of 16+ air yards is charted. You can check out the 2014, 2015, 2016 editions here. Click here for the 2018 edition.

First off, throws excluded from the Deep Ball Project include:

-Passes tipped or picked before they reach 16-19 air yards

-Offsetting penalties (declined ones are included)

-Plays where the quarterback’s arm is interfered with before he gets the ball out



Got it? Great!

One thing you’ll notice from this fourth addition is that it is a dramatic overhaul of previous editions. This time, I no longer required quarterbacks to start at least 8 games, giving me a wider range of quarterbacks to study. It was exhausting, sure, and I lost many hours of sleep in order to release this as soon as possible. But it was worth it, because it’s done at last.

So with that said, here are the key stats you should keep in mind

More areas of distance: In addition to 16+ throws, throws of 16-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, and 40+ air yards are included.

Open Window and Tight Window: These stats are put in for context on how much room the receiver has given the quarterback. Open Windows are exactly that–receivers are wide open. Tight window passes are on throws where the quarterback has much less margin for error.

Efficiency Score: Replacing accuracy percentage as the key stat, efficiency score looks at not only how accurate a quarterback was, but also if he took care of the ball throwing downfield. This will be how the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project quarterbacks will be ranked.

This is based on a points system given to accurate passes, which will be explained below:

16-19 air yards=1 point (Pressure/Tight Window=2, Both=3)

20-24=2 points (Pressure/Tight Window=3, Both=4)

25-29=3 points (Pressure/Tight Window=4, Both=5)

30-34=4 points (Pressure/Tight Window=5, Both=6)

35-39=5 points (Pressure/Tight Window=6, Both=7)

40+=6 points (Pressure/Tight Window=7, Both=8)

-3 points are taken away if the receiver has to adjust for no reason, if the pass is picked off and the throw is on the quarterback, or if a dropped pick occurs and it’s the quarterbacks fault.

Straight up inaccurate incompletions are given zero points.

The total number is divided by the total amount of deep pass attempts. That results in the efficiency score.

-Clean Pocket, Pressure, Play Action, Off Balance (poor mechanics), Open Window and Tight Window stats are added, as well as the percentage of said passes in regards to the total amount of deep passes.

Inaccurate Completions and Accurate Incompletions (NEW): This idea was explored with in previous editions, but is now fully realized. Inaccurate Completions are where the quarterback makes the receiver adjust on a completed pass when he doesn’t need to, resulting in an inaccurate pass.

Accurate Incompletions are the opposite; The quarterback fires a perfect throw that the receiver can’t haul in. In addition to drops, contested catches, sideline passes, and even a few deflections are included as accurate.

Percentages are also given out to these two areas in regards to the total amount of deep passes.

The typical raw stats (Completions/Attempts, Completion Percentage, Yards, Touchdowns and Interceptions) make an appearance as well. These aren’t focused nearly as much because I put them there to explain the context of each quarterback’s situation.

Finally, accuracy percentage makes its return. This is NOT the same as completion percentage, as it merits if a pass is accurate regardless if caught or not.


You guys have been waiting, so let’s get this started. This edition will be ranked based on lowest efficiency score to highest efficiency score. I present to you: The 2017-18 Deep Ball Project.

35. Case Keenum

Efficiency Score: 0.12

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We start off the latest edition of the Deep Ball Project with a twist.

Case Keenum was a great underdog story in 2017. He was only with the Minnesota Vikings for a year, but it felt like a home to him. With the events of the Minneapolis Miracle in the Divisional Round against the Saints, Keenum cemented himself in Vikings postseason history.

With that said, he was the least efficient deep passer in 2017.

Keenum deep ball (bailed)

The main problem with Keenum was while he wasn’t the least accurate deep passer, he forced his receivers to adjust more than any other quarterback, with 15 inaccurate completions. Who could’ve guessed playing with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph would’ve been beneficial?

Keenum Deep (wtf)

In addition to the inaccurate completions, Keenum had his share of dumb plays, such as the off balance interception he threw against the Saints. Through most of the regular season, it was fun to watch Keenum play to his full potential, even while his receivers were bailing him. By the end of the regular season, however, it was clear he was a major anchor to a talented offense, and it was reflected in the postseason.

The only stat Keenum’s accuracy was decent on was on throws of 40+ air yards. Otherwise his accuracy was extremely poor, and I’m not sure he can be as lucky in Denver as he was in Minnesota.

Best Downfield Throw

Keenum best deep throw

The touchdown against the Lions on Thanksgiving was spectacular, but this, to me, is more impressive. One thing that’s admirable about Keenum is he’s not afraid to take shots, even while under pressure. Such is the case here, and he takes a beating in order to provide a beautiful tight window pass to Diggs.

34. Joe Flacco

Efficiency Score: 0.19

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It took three years for everyone to realize the Baltimore Ravens have a quarterback problem.

Truth be told, Joe Flacco’s been terrible since that post Super Bowl contract (the 2014 season was largely carried by offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak). Once a decent player and a solid downfield passer, Flacco’s lack of poise and awful mechanics have suffocated the offense and cost the Ravens numerous chances to make the playoffs.

Flacco deep ball (dumb)

With the increase in cash, Flacco has let down his guard, and now can’t read the field or throw with precision. He was the 2nd least accurate deep passer overall, and the least accurate passer into tight windows. His abysmal display into said windows was made all the worse considering the interceptions he threw (such as the baffling stare down pick above).

The Ravens need to move on from Flacco after 2018, when they actually can afford to. Here’s another suggestion next time you make a decision on a quarterback: Try not to extend him a second time after an awful (2015) season.

Best Downfield Throw

Flacco best deep throw

There’s not much to say about this one, except it’s a rare throw where Flacco not only shows poise, but throws to a tight window with precision! It’s a beautiful touchdown throw as a result.

33. Josh McCown

Efficiency Score: 0.20

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Whoever said “Nice guys finish last” hasn’t seen the skills Josh McCown possesses as a con artist.

Yes, McCown is a nice guy, but his reputation as a “mentor” has kept him in the league longer than he has any right to be. The New York Jets are the latest victim in this tragedy, and to make things even more bizarre, they signed Teddy Bridgewater in addition.

McCown deep (bailed by Anderson)

McCown wasn’t close to being the least accurate deep passer, but he was the only QB without a single accurate incompletion. That’s right. The Jets receivers (Robby Anderson especially) were the most efficient on deep passes last year, constantly bailing McCown’s inaccurate throws. Not bad for a group that has polarized analysts.

McCown deep (dropped pick)

Despite encountering the eight least rate of tight windows and playing in an offense that stripped a lot of responsibility from him, McCown still managed to miss receivers, throw to defenders, and drag down a Jets offense that showed promise early in the season.

There were better mentors available for the Jets than McCown. Hell, they could’ve just signed Bridgewater and let McCown walk and everything would be fine. But expecting an NFL front office to be competent would be like the Eagles winning a Super Bowl. Wait……

Best Downfield Throw

McCown best deep throw

Not only is this a phenomenal pressure play, but it’s also a gorgeous tight window throw to Anderson. If McCown could only do this 400% more than he often does, he could go places.

32. Brett Hundley

Efficiency Score=0.30

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Brett Hundley was awful last year. Absolutely awful. But what else did you expect? Everyone knew the Green Bay Packers season was over when Aaron Rodgers went down, and we knew Hundley wasn’t going to be close to his level. So there’s really no point in getting mad about this.

Still, Hundley was the least accurate downfield passer overall, and the least accurate on play action passing as well. While Mike McCarthy is a bad example of a coach that can make an quarterback friendly offense, he gave Hundley a higher rate of play action and clean pockets than Rodgers, and Hundley still managed to look incompetent.

Hundley deep (wtf)

Incredibly, Hundley was actually the 8th most accurate passer on throws between 20-24 air yards. Otherwise, there’s little to be impressed about. Hundley was the 2nd least accurate passer into open windows, and looked more interested in throwing to the turf than to an actual receiver.

So Hundley was atrocious, but this was expected, so there’s not much for me to say.

Best Downfield Throw

Hundley best deep throw

The game at Chicago featured some of the most impressive plays of Hundley’s career. In particular, his amazing bomb on 3rd down to Devante Adams in the 4th quarter helped ice the game for Green Bay.

31. Deshaun Watson

Efficiency Score: 0.49

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Deshaun Watson won the hearts of many football fans and the city of Houston with his aggressive style of passing in his rookie season, and then proceeded to break those hearts to pieces when he missed the last 11 games of the season with a torn ACL.

Needless to say, Texans fans are anticipating big things with Watson’s return, but there’s a lot that needs to be cleaned up if he wants to sustain the statistical success he had in 2017.

Watson deep ball (wtf)

In general, Watson’s accuracy on deep passes was poor. He was consistently missing open windows and forcing his receivers to make adjustments. The main problem was he had the highest rate of off balance throws, and the awkward angles he was forcing himself into affected his accuracy and led to a couple bad interceptions.

This was done in a QB friendly environment as well. Watson had the third highest rate of clean pass protection, yet was constantly running out of these clean pockets and heading himself straight into pressure. That’s another major concern that has to be fixed going into his sophomore season.

If he polishes up his flaws, Watson has some incredible peak plays that will only increase with any consistency he develops.

Best Downfield Throw

Watson best deep throw

Watson was at his best in the 4th quarter of the Kansas City game, where he nearly led the Texans on an improbable comeback victory and gave Chiefs fans a little scare. This touchdown throw to DeAndre Hopkins was the most impressive of that game. Watson keeps his eyes downfield under pressure, sets his feet, and rockets a sensational bomb to Hopkins for the touchdown.

30. Kirk Cousins

Efficiency Score: 0.53

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The Vikings let Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater walk while giving a huge contract extension to…..a slightly better version of Case Keenum.

I’ve never been a big Kirk Cousins fan. Even when he was putting up monster numbers in 2016, he had arguably the best receiving corps in the league bailing him out, as well as a top offensive line. Even with all this rich talent, the Washington Redskins missed out on the playoffs that year.

Fast forward a year later, and Washington is out of the postseason again. They responded by trading for Alex Smith and kicking Cousins to the curb.

Cousins deep (costly miss)

Cousins was the 3rd least accurate downfield passer into tight windows. For as many completions as he makes, there are three times as many plays as he leaves on the field. This held back a talented receiving corps in 2015 and 2016, and with a lesser, but still competent, cast, Cousins’ flaws were further exploited, finally breaking the relationship between him and the Redskins front office.

Cousins deep (horrible staredown)

When Cousins wasn’t throwing into tight windows, he was forcing the ball into defenders’ hands (this play in particular is beyond incomprehensible). Prized vertical threat Josh Doctson actually broke up four interceptions on deep passes alone last year. I can’t think of any other receiver that came close to that.

I hope Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs enjoy Cousins, because they’re gonna get as extra of a workout from him as they did with Keenum.

Best Downfield Throw

Cousins best deep throw

A positive to Kirk Cousins is that, like Keenum, he’ll keep his eyes downfield and search for open receivers. The results are a different story, but on this play, he manages to deliver a perfect pass under pressure to Vernon Davis for the touchdown.

29. Eli Manning

Efficiency Score: 0.63

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It’s sad to see how washed Eli Manning has become.

Granted, the massive disappointment that was the 2017 New York Giants season wasn’t all his fault. The offensive line was still bad, the injuries to Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall destroyed the receiving corps, and Ben McAdoo. No I did not intend to complete that sentence any further.

But considering this is the same quarterback that carried awful offenses to Super Bowls and made unfriendly environments appear functional, Manning looks like he’s on the decline.

Eli deep (open miss)

Eli was the most accurate passer on throws between 35-39 air yards, but that’s really because he only attempted one pass in that area. He was the 12th least accurate quarterback throwing to open windows, and his touchdown miss of Tavarres King against the Rams was painful.

Manning was also the 8th least accurate quarterback under pressure–The Giants only gave up the 16th highest rate of pressure on downfield throws (I say “only” because this is the Giants OL we’re referring to. Any amount of competence is mind blowing).

Maybe Pat Shurmur will come in and give Manning a more quarterback friendly offense to thrive in than McAdoo (who himself gave Manning a more QB friendly environment than previous offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride!). But Manning’s time is approaching, and it’s implied the team may search for the next franchise quarterback in this year’s draft.

Best Downfield Throw

Eli best deep throw

Just a straightforward dime to Roger Lewis for the touchdown. There wasn’t much for me to choose from, so this is the best I can find.

28. Blake Bortles

Efficiency Score: 0.64

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A year ago, Blake Bortles ranked as the second least accurate downfield passer on the 2016-17 Deep Ball Project (behind Brock Osweiler, great company, I know.). He could not operate a vertical offense or make multiple reads, and his awful throwing motion nailed the coffin on the 2016 Jacksonville Jaguars season.

A year later, new head coach Doug Marrone decides to take away any responsibility Bortles had by transforming into a run heavy, conservative passing offense. How did that work out? A lot better than I thought it would, but that’s not saying much.

Bortles deep (bad miss)

Indeed, Bortles’ overall accuracy took a massive step up, but he still ranked 27th in accuracy percentage. The terrible misses to open receivers–such as the one above–and baffling decisions were still there (he also had the 13th highest rate of inaccurate completions), but because Bortles had less responsibility, these were lessened.

He and his deep passing season are/were terrible, but Bortles might not be the worst starting quarterback in the league anymore. And let’s not forget how he became the greatest postseason quarterback of all time. Blake Bortles Facts told me so, and I trust him.

Best Downfield Throw

Bortles best deep throw

A year ago, it would’ve been impossible for Bortles to make this throw. That’s all I have to say about this.

27. Matthew Stafford

Efficiency Score: 0.67

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What more can I say about Matthew Stafford at this point? His peak plays are really fun, but outside of that he’s a widely inaccurate, inconsistent decision maker that plays with one of the absolute best vertical threats in the game in Marvin Jones.

He faced the 4th highest rate of tight window throws, but Stafford also threw the 2nd most inaccurate completions in 2017 with 12, and Jones had a lot to do with that number as he caught seven of those 12 inaccurate completions.

Stafford deep (Jones bails him)

This throw is an interception. Marvin Jones chooses whether or not it deserves to count. Hell, without context it looks like Stafford wants to throw this to the defensive back!

Stafford had the touchdowns and the otherworldly arm talent and mobility to make any deep throw from any angle possible, but in comparison to other veteran starters, his accuracy doesn’t come close to comparing.

Best Downfield Throw

Stafford best deep throw

It’s nice that Marvin Jones doesn’t have to adjust on a pass and can just straight up catch the ball.

26. Derek Carr

Efficiency Score: 0.70

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Carr was one of the most accurate downfield passers in the 2016-17 Deep Ball Project. Looking back on it, it was largely because he was throwing to open receivers with ridiculous pass protection, and was mostly required to make one read and release the ball.

After his massive extension, Carr actually had to play like a top tier quarterback. And how did that work out? It did not.

Carr deep (scared)

There’s honestly little difference between Carr in 2017 and Carr in 2015 and 2016. He’s polished the mistakes he had in his rookie season, but this is still a flawed quarterback. If he has to make more than one read or adjust to the slightest amount of pressure, the offense is toast. He was the 2nd least accurate deep passer under pressure, and the 5th least accurate into tight windows.

What Carr thinks is an offense that suffocates him is still a quarterback friendly enough environment for quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers–The Oakland Raiders still gave him the 7th highest rate of clean pass protection. Carr had the most off balance throws in 2017 with 10, which is alarming for a quarterback that only faced the 7th lowest rate of pressure downfield.

Oakland should be in good hands heading into the 1998 season though. Jon Gruden was paid $100M, signed Doug Martin and Jordy Nelson, cut Michael Crabtree, and gets a severely overpaid quarterback that struggles under pressure.

Best Downfield Throw

Carr best deep throw

This pressure play is amazing. The ball seems to float in the air for an eternity yet it’s delivered on time and with precision. Making it all the better is Carr keeps his eyes downfield under heavy pressure. I only wish he could do this a lot more in these circumstances.

25. Carson Wentz

Efficiency Score: 0.70

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I’m not as high on Carson Wentz as most, but it can’t be denied that when he has to create plays on his own, he’s a lot of fun to watch.

Seriously, some of the stuff Wentz was doing in 2017 would have Houdini sleeping like a baby in his grave. The peak plays were much more jaw dropping, and his potential was more realized. As the season went on, Wentz made up for the poor decisions and dropped picks he threw early in the year by bringing more consistency. Because he wasn’t suffocating a loaded offense, the Philadelphia Eagles became the most dangerous in football.

But while Wentz’s decision making has taken a step in the right direction, his accuracy is still a big concern.

Wentz deep (horrible miss)

Wentz had the highest rate of open window passes in 2017, yet was the third least accurate when throwing to open receivers. He was the 4th most accurate QB on throws of 20-24 air yards and the 8th most accurate on throws of 25-29 air yards, but for a QB controlling a team with the best offensive line in the league, a talented receiving corps, and plenty of open windows, the lack of accuracy elsewhere has to be erased once he comes back to training camp.

Wentz deep (dropped pick)

The dropped picks such as the one above lessened as the season went on, but the inaccurate throws remained throughout. There’s a long way to go, but at least Wentz has been able to take strides forward in his development. And if nothing else, he has a Super Bowl ring to keep with him for the rest of his life.

Best Downfield Throw

Wentz best deep throw

The throw on the run from the same game was amazing, but this touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor was even better. Wentz finds Agholor open on the other side of the field as he’s moving away from pressure and gives him a sensational throw. Peak Wentz is great.

24. Trevor Siemian

Efficiency Score: 0.75

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In addition to signing a slightly better version of Case Keenum, the Vikings also traded for the AFC West Case Keenum in Trevor Siemian to backup Cousins. That’s a lot to process in so little time.

Siemian deep (horrible miss)

Siemian became a beloved player in the first half of the 2016 season, and considering where we are now, you can guess how well that turned out. He’s not the worst deep passer in the league, but his lack of arm strength (see above) and decision making forced the Denver Broncos to cut ties with him for good.

He was the 6th most accurate passer on throws of 20-24 air yards, and the most accurate on throws of 35-39 air yards (granted, he threw two passes in that area). Impressively, Siemian was the 12th most accurate passer with clean pockets, and that’s good because he had the 2nd lowest rate of clean pass protection on downfield attempts.

For a backup, Siemian isn’t awful. He’s bad, but he isn’t awful. He at least gives a crap. But I wouldn’t want him close to being a starter, and I wouldn’t really want him throwing deep all the time either.

Best Downfield Throw

Siemian best deep throw

This isn’t the tightest window you’ll ever see, but Siemian does a great job giving his receiver an accurate touchdown pass with four defenders around him.

23. Andy Dalton

Efficiency Score: 0.78

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It’s universally agreed upon that Andy Dalton is a better quarterback for the Buffalo Bills than he is for the Cincinnati Bengals. And I don’t want to give away anything, but Dalton’s never played a snap with the Bills.

Dalton deep (horrible miss of Green)

In previous seasons, Dalton’s consistency on loaded Bengals offenses was all over the place. He was at his best in 2015, conveniently when the talent level was at its best. Take away Marvin Jones, Mohamad Sanu, amazing pass protection, and sane Hue Jackson, and you had a quarterback that could not elevate a lesser supporting cast.

Dalton was the 4th least accurate deep passer, as well as the 6th least accurate on open window passes. AJ Green had his share of bad drops in the latter half of the 2017 season, but Dalton largely gave him a raw deal (more so than usual).

There are a few times where Dalton looks like a franchise quarterback, but he’s been extremely forgettable, so much so that no one is making postseason jokes about him anymore.

Best Downfield Throw

Dalton best deep throw (duh)

Seriously, what else would go here? Not presented in this GIF is Dalton making a great pre snap read and putting more blockers on the right side.

Something tells me Bills fans enjoy this more than Bengals fans do.

22. Tom Brady

Efficiency Score: 0.86

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Tom Brady was the best quarterback in 2017, so the 3rd MVP he collected was well deserved. Consistent throughout, you couldn’t ask anymore from a 40-year-old starter than what Brady did.

With that said, Brady has never been a consistent deep passer. He’s been capable, but compared to other elite quarterbacks, it’s been left in the dust.

So imagine my surprise when I chart 138 deep pass attempts, easily the most any quarterback had thrown last season. With this ridiculous volume, Brady also threw for the most deep passing yards in Deep Ball Project history, getting close to reaching 2,000!

The obvious expectation for a 40-year-old quarterback that has never been known for his deep passing being in an offense with receivers that had contrasting skill sets (such as Brandin Cooks and Philip Dorsett) would be that the offense would suffer. All things considered, however, Brady managed the change in offense as well as he could have.

Brady deep (outside comfort zone)

Obviously, there were plenty of moments where Brady was uncomfortable with the change in style, such as the dropped interception above. He has the precision on short and intermediate throws, but not so much downfield. Even so, he was the 9th most accurate passer under pressure, and that’s extremely impressive considering he faced the 8th highest rate of pressure.

Brady deep (unreal pressure play)

Brady did force the third highest amount of inaccurate completions and was the 6th least accurate quarterback into tight windows. So obviously this isn’t a good deep passing display. But for what it’s worth, Brady made an offense that didn’t fit his skill set work, and the intermediate and short passing game was still first class.

Best Downfield Throw

Brady best deep throw

Sadly, Brady’s 2017 season will be remembered by many for his strip sack and drop as a receiver in the Super Bowl. He was terrific under pressure though, such as on this game winning off balance touchdown throw to Cooks.

21. Jimmy Garoppolo

Efficiency Score: 0.89

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Yes, that is the greatest quarterback of all time Jimmy Garoppolo one spot above Tom Brady in efficiency. Go crazy, 49ers fans.

When the 49ers finally started Garoppolo a decade after trading for him, they ended the season on an extremely high note, winning all five starts Jimmy G had and allowing big name free agents to go to San Francisco.

There was a lot of good from Garoppolo’s debut season in San Francisco. Sure, he had the highest rate of clean pass protection, but he was the 8th most accurate deep passer and the most accurate quarterback under pressure, throwing accurately on all of his attempts that occurred under duress. He was also the 5th most accurate open window passer.

Garoppolo deep (dropped pick)

So why is his efficiency score so low in comparison to some of his accuracy stats? Well, for such a small sample size, he threw a large amount of dropped picks (This didn’t affect his score, but Garoppolo is the first quarterback in Deep Ball Project history without a single touchdown pass.). His accuracy past 25-29 yards also sunk, so the efficiency isn’t as good as the stats suggest it should be.

If Garoppolo can clean up the dropped picks and show improved footwork, there’s plenty of promise for the 49ers going forward.

Best Downfield Throw

Garoppolo best deep throw

Garoppolo’s poise can be inconsistent, but at its best he’s able to create plays like this in the pocket under pressure. Kyle Shanahan should allow him to improve in this area.

20. Jay Cutler

Efficiency Score: 0.91

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The Miami Dolphins are currently undergoing a culture change, so it makes sense that Jay Cutler is still on the team after an awful debut in Miami.

I’ve never been a Cutler detractor like most of you guys, but I think we can all agree he sucked last year. Granted, he faced the third highest rate of pressure, but this is a QB that in previous QBs was perfectly fine under pressure. Not so much in 2017.

Cutler deep (bailed)

Except on throws of 30-34 air yards, Cutler’s accuracy was pretty bad. He was the 2nd least accurate passer on throws of 16-19 air yards, and the 7th least accurate overall. A large part of this has to do with a lack of technique when throwing, as Cutler had the third highest rate of off balance throws. This affected the accuracy of even throws that were caught.

So Cutler stunk in 2017. I have nothing more to say about this, so let’s move on.

Best Downfield Throw

Cutler best deep throw

Vintage peak Jay Cutler. This lessened as the season went on, but against the Chargers, Cutler had several impressive plays where he kept his eyes downfield. This touchdown to Kenny Stills is the finest of the bunch.

19. Mitchell Trubisky

Efficiency Score: 0.96

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For anyone that doesn’t think that highly of Mitchell Trubisky, I’d guarantee you’re blessed to have him on here and not Mike Glennon.

I really liked Trubisky as a rookie. He had his growing pains early on (which was to be expected, as he rarely started in college), but as the season progressed so did he. His intermediate accuracy is excellent and his poise can only get better with Matt Nagy calling the shots.

Trubisky deep (insane)

As you may have guessed, Trubisky as a deep passer was a mixed bag. That was my concern coming out of college, and while he wasn’t terrible, his consistency ranged from plays like the one above…

Trubisky deep miss

…to plays like this where he was missing open receivers (Trubisky was 21st in open window accuracy. Not the worst, but not near the best either).

Thankfully, his accuracy was phenomenal on throws of 25-29 and 35-39 air yards, so there’s plenty of good. With a crazy improved receiving corps from the offseason, Trubisky’s development should only go more smoothly from here on out. We’ll see if the downfield accuracy takes a step up in the meantime, but for rookie standards he wasn’t too bad.

Best Downfield Throw

Trubisky best deep throw

Trubisky has the potential to be a monster passer into tight windows and under pressure. On this play, Trubisky faces both circumstances yet makes an otherworldy throw.

18. Ben Roethlisberger

Efficiency Score: 0.99

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What happened? Once one of the absolute best deep passers in football, Ben Roethlisberger’s accuracy has taken a major nosedive, so much so that I’m not even sure this is the same quarterback at times.

Oh sure, the large volume was still there, and there were an abundant amount of completions., but Roethlisberger’s deep accuracy was terrible.

Ben deep (wtf)

Ben deep (bailed by Brown)

Ben Roethlisberger was the least accurate passer against pressure (GIF 1) and the least accurate going into open windows (GIF 2), and it wasn’t even close. There were many, many plays where Roethlisberger chucked the ball up without processing the play. He’s fortunate he saw some dropped picks and has the best receiver in football in Antonio Brown, because there was too many boneheaded mistakes from a quarterback that used to be as efficient as the rest.

What saves Roethlisberger’s efficiency score is the high amount of home run passes he threw, as his accuracy on passes of 35+ air yards faired much better than passes under that number. But from a sensational deep passer from seasons past, I expected much more quality than what I got.

Best Downfield Throw

Ben best deep throw

Going for it on 4th down in a postseason game is ballsy, but the Steelers have been known as an aggressive team on situational downs. This touchdown throw to Martavis Bryant is sensational, and Roethlisberger had a couple other amazing TD throws from this game as well.

17. Jared Goff

Efficiency Score: 0.99

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From laughing stock to taken seriously, Jared Goff’s fortune has taken a dramatic shift thanks to the arrival of Sean McVay and plenty of dangerous assets at his disposal. Come to think of it, that describes the Los Angeles Rams as well!

Goff was never on the 2016-17 Deep Ball Project, but I imagine his deep accuracy would’ve been dead last or something. Anyway, his role in his sophomore season suggested he was a game manager, which is a hell of a lot better than what he was in his rookie season.

Goff deep (Woods adjusts)

Still, Goff had the 4th most inaccurate completions with 8, and newcomer Robert Woods had a couple of them against the 49ers. His accuracy and arm strength still aren’t good, but at least he’s processing things more consistently now. Incredibly, Goff’s accuracy was excellent on throws of 30-34 and 40+ air yards, but was also the 6th least accurate quarterback under pressure.

Goff deep (Misses Watkins)

The main problem I had with Jared Goff in 2017 was he kept missing Sammy Watkins, now with the Chiefs. Goff was only accurate on 6 of 20 throws of 16+ air yards to Watkins. According to my math, that is a 30.0 accuracy percentage on such throws, which is not good.

Can Goff continue strides in improvement without Watkins opening up space, or has he reached his ceiling? Who knows, but man I’d rather have him being carried by an awesome offense than sink it, that’s for sure. All things considered, Goff’s deep efficiency went better than expected thanks to a limited amount of dropped picks.

Best Downfield Throw

Goff best deep throw

Under pressure and to a receiver that isn’t open in the abstract sense? Yes please! The Rams lost this game, but still have this awesome throw from Goff to Tyler Higbee, as well as the ass kicking they gave Seattle later in the year.

16. Carson Palmer

Efficiency Score: 1.00

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.23.25 AM

It’s tough seeing old faces go.

Carson Palmer was the best downfield passer of 2015. He could do no wrong that year, throwing insane passes under pressure and into tight windows, elevating the Cardinals offense into one of the absolute best from that year and making himself an MVP candidate.

It was clear he had found a home in Arizona.

While 2016 was also really good, 2017 was evidence that Palmer’s time had come.

Palmer deep (underthrow)

There was still a nice amount of quality throws, but the diminished arm strength meant a decrease in accuracy downfield. The Cardinals didn’t help that, allowing the highest rate of pressure downfield, making things even tougher on Palmer.

Palmer deep (Tight window master)

With that said, there was still some positive moments from Palmer’s swan song of a season. He was 6th in accuracy on play action, and was the 7th most accurate QB on throws of 30-34 air yards (He was also 4th on throws of 40+, but he only threw two attempts!). It’s not of the same quality, but there was still enough moments of once tight window passing king Carson Palmer that it’s not a lost cause.

Enjoy retirement, #3.

Best Downfield Throw

Palmer best deep throw

Taking me back to 2015 with this throw. There’s a reason why Palmer’s accuracy on play action was so good.

15. Tom Savage

Efficiency Score: 1.02

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.08 AM

Yes, this is Tom Savage, the 15th most efficient downfield passer of 2017. No I don’t understand why this is happening either.

The offense that Savage took over was far from the same offense Bill O’Brien had provided Deshaun Watson. In Watson’s offense there was an abundant amount of play action, open windows and clean pockets. In Savage’s, he only had the 17th highest rate of clean pockets, the highest rate of tight window throws, and the 7th lowest rate of play action.

Savage deep (Hopkins screws him)

O’Brien went back to an offense that suffocated its quarterback, and considering what the Eagles did with Nick Foles, this is inexcusable. But what’s really bizarre is Savage had 9 accurate incompletions (Watson had 3) with the exact same receivers as the quarterback he came in for had. Maybe this had to do with the increase in tight windows, but sure handed receiver DeAndre Hopkins was suddenly failing to haul in as many passes as he should have (of course, considering the plays he does make, this doesn’t matter as much).

But here’s the crazy part: Savage was the 13th most accurate deep passer of 2017. 13th. He was 2nd on throws of 30-34 yards, and (wait for it) was the 5th most accurate quarterback under pressure. Am I not supposed to understand this? Savage gets a far worse offensive scheme and yet has a higher efficiency score than Deshaun Watson!

He’s still awful and should be nowhere near a starting role. But he limited the amount of turnovers, and thanks to a high rate of pressure plays, he rated higher than he has any right to be.

Best Downfield Throw

Savage best deep throw

One of my best friends is a Pitt fan. If I showed him this kickass throw he would spontaneously combust. Great throw and play under pressure.

14. Russell Wilson

Efficiency Score: 1.20

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.23.34 AM

Much like Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson’s deep passing ability appears to be taking a step in the wrong direction, which is odd considering his 2017 supporting cast was arguably the most talented of any group he’s ever had.

There may have been valid excuses in previous seasons when he was a top downfield passer, but there’s not nearly as much here. Seattle gave him the 9th highest rate of clean pockets, the 6th highest rate of open window throws, and the 9th highest rate of play action. Wilson was able to elevate his offensive line in seasons past, but at times stooped down to their level last year.

Wilson deep (awful miss of Baldwin)

Extremely baffling is the giant amount of missed throws to open receivers. In this area, Wilson’s accuracy ranked 31st, unacceptable for a quarterback of his usual quality. A giant amount of interceptable passes dragged his efficiency score down further as well.

Wilson deep (dime)

However, Wilson’s efficiency for 2017 was solid thanks to his success on home run balls. He was 4th in accuracy on throws of 40+ air yards, and was 10th in accuracy under pressure. These were the moments where he looked like the one man army on the run he’s been famous for.

From an accuracy standpoint, Wilson’s deep passing season was a huge disappointment. But thanks to his success further down the field, it’s one that still has enough moments of vintage Russ to satisfy the everyday football fan.

Best Downfield Throw

Wilson best deep throw

The trajectory of this pass to Doug Baldwin is mindblowing. Few quarterbacks have been able to do this as well as Wilson has.

13. Philip Rivers

Efficiency Score: 1.21

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.23.42 AM

Some might say the 2017 Los Angeles Chargers season ended with disappointment at 9-7, but consider that they started 0-4 and there’s another side to that coin.

The same is true for Philip Rivers. He struggled early on in the season but returned to form in the second half of 2017 (outside the primetime game at Kansas City where he crapped himself). His deep passing ability has taken some hits as he’s gotten older, but Rivers has still found ways to make a living off of it.

Rivers deep (dime under pressure)

Most of Rivers’ accuracy numbers ranged from good to solid, and he was 2nd in accuracy on throws of 40+ air yards, impressive considering he threw 17 in that area! He managed to be 11th in overall accuracy as well, not bad for someone of his age!

He got sloppy early in the season and in week 16 against the Jets, but overall this is another nice downfield passing season from one of the best quarterbacks of our generation.

Best Downfield Throw

Rivers best deep throw

Initially this throw looks inaccurate, but on close inspection Rivers is throwing Hunter Henry away from the defender. I’ve always raved about Rivers’ ball placement being one of the best I’ve seen, and this play is no exception.

12. Nick Foles

Efficiency Score: 1.27

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.23.55 AM

Nick Foles returns to the Deep Ball Project, and as a Philadelphia Eagle once more. Not only is he 12th in deep efficiency, he’s also a Super Bowl MVP (time travel would screw these lottery bets).

Granted, a large weight of Foles’ high efficiency does not come from his accuracy. He threw a tiny amount of interceptable passes and the large majority of his success came from the last two games of the season. Before that, his efficiency was atrocious.

Foles deep (flea flicker dime)

Once the Eagles made adjustments to help Foles (he faced the 2nd highest rate of play action) while he was in for an injured Wentz, the offense went back to being the deadliest in football, outmatching New England in the Super Bowl. From there, Foles hit impressive throw after impressive throw, facing higher rates of pressure and tight windows than Wentz did!

The Nick Foles underdog story is one that will be told for years to come. He was extremely efficient last year and is a testament to the greatness that is Doug Pederson.

Best Downfield Throw

Foles best deep throw

The touchdown throw to Corey Clement is fantastic, but this one is better because it was actually made under pressure. The ball is placed high enough that the defender can’t break it up while being amazingly precise enough to be caught by Alshon Jeffery for the touchdown.

11. Jameis Winston

Efficiency Score: 1.28

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.25 AM

Jameis Winston is infamous for his inaccuracy. Last season he was among the worst downfield passers in the league, constantly missing open receivers and leaving plays on the field.

He was still doing this in 2017, but when he came back from his 3-game injury, Winston played the best football of his career, and his deep accuracy saw growth as well.

Winston deep (terrific throw)

The egregious misses are still there, but at the same time Winston has appeared to find some consistency. He was 4th in accuracy on throws of 16-19 air yards, and only threw 1 inaccurate completion on the season, an impressively low number! He was also 8th in tight window accuracy.

The main issues with Winston still lie in his accuracy on throws of 35+ air yards, but he appears to have taken a big step in the right direction.

Best Downfield Throw

Winston best deep throw

When Winston is good, he’s really damn good. He does a phenomenal job of sidestepping pressure here and firing into the area of ball magnet Mike Evans for a sensational touchdown.

10. Marcus Mariota

Efficiency Score: 1.34

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.17 AM

In previous seasons, Marcus Mariota was billed as a quality downfield passer when I felt his success was a case of volume instead of efficiency. That changed in 2017, as he’s now a good downfield passer.

Mariota deep (Pressure play)

Mariota ranked ridiculously high in many accuracy stats. He was 2nd in overall accuracy2nd in accuracy under pressure, 5th in accuracy on throws to tight windows, and 3rd in open window accuracy. Despite playing in a Mike Mularkey coached Tennessee Titans offense that produced the 5th most accurate incompletions, Mariota had zero inaccurate completions.

The high amount of interceptions made his efficiency score lower than would’ve been without, but this was a still a damn good deep passing season from Mariota.

Best Downfield Throw

Mariota best deep throw

You saw this coming from a mile away. Quadruple coverage and Mariota completes this tight window pass like it’s nothing.

9. Drew Brees

Efficiency Score: 1.38

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Drew Brees ages like a fine wine, and this is especially factual on deep passing, where he has always ranked near the top in the Deep Ball Project’s four-year history.

Brees deep (bomb)

Brees’ ability to command the field is as good as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers’ is, but we knew that. This is shown in the fact that he ranks in the top 10 in most of the accuracy stats, including first in accuracy on throws of 16-19 air yards. He faced the 3rd highest rate of tight window throws, and yet was 2nd in accuracy in this area.

If not for several inaccurate completions and dropped interceptions, Brees would’ve ranked way higher. What he’s doing at this age is phenomenal, and his greatness on deep passing knows no bounds either.

Best Downfield Throw

Brees best deep throw

There’s loads to choose from, but this throw is just nuts. Most quarterbacks don’t make this throw work.

8. Cam Newton

Efficiency Score: 1.39

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.37 AM

In spite of a largely inconsistent season due to injury, Cam Newton still had another phenomenal year throwing the ball.

6th in overall accuracy and into tight windows, 4th under clean pockets, and 2nd in accuracy on throws of 20-24 air yards, Newton overcame a rough start and elevated the Carolina Panthers’ limited receiving corps the same way he has in seasons past.

Cam deep (Funchess drop)

That’s good because the receivers were tied for first in accurate completions. 19 inaccurate completions and the third highest rate of accurate incompletions to be exact. Naturally the Panthers missed out on getting actual receivers and got today’s version of Torrey Smith and Jarius Wright. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Cam deep (unreal precision)

He’s known more as a runner than a passer, but Newton’s passing ability is criminally underrated. His accuracy into tight windows and under pressure is insane considering the windows he’s asked to throw into. A healthy Newton with a talented receiving corps would be awesome, but maybe it’s not meant to be. The receiving corps part, that is.

Best downfield throw

Cam best deep throw

The placement was just bananas. Vintage Cam. Even crazier: Kelvin Benjamin caught the ball!

7. Tyrod Taylor

Efficiency Score: 1.48

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.43 AM

Despite what Bills fans may think, Tyrod carried an awful roster to the team’s first postseason appearance of the millennium. 

Tyrod was giving zero help. He faced the 2nd highest rate of tight windows downfield, the 7th highest rate of pressure, and saw 9 of his accurate passes get wasted by incompletions.

And yet, he made that awful offense look competent.

Tyrod deep (dime under pressure)

Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to be accurate on all of his open window throws, and was the 4th most accurate on play action. He was also in the top 15 in accuracy under pressure, as well as 6th on both 25-29 and 30-34 throws. And get this, he was able to carry that awful supporting cast with zero inaccurate completions.

His all around accuracy isn’t spectacular, but Tyrod managed to make few mistakes, giving him a high efficiency grade. Hopefully the Cleveland Browns can appreciate him more than Buffalo did.

Best Downfield Throw

Tyrod best deep throw

It’s obvious how good Tyrod is outside the pocket, but he took a step forward in terms of poise. This throw is just insane, and it’s the kind of stuff he did all season in 2017.

6. Alex Smith

Efficiency Score: 1.50

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.54 AM

I’m not a fan of normal Alex Smith, but aggressive Alex Smith? I’m all for it!

In previous seasons, Smith was a capable downfield passer. He was just hesitant to do it. With Patrick Mahomes lighting a fire up his ass, however, Smith became an aggressive quarterback in 2017.

Smith deep (Hill)

His accuracy was solid all around, and he was 5th on throws of 16-19 yards. Sure he forced several adjustments on the ball, and he got away with some dropped picks, but this is the version of Alex Smith I’ve been waiting to see at a more consistent level.

If he maintains his aggressiveness in 2018, the Redskins got a promising season ahead of them. Will he? I don’t know, but what I do know is he was excellent on deep passing efficiency last year.

Best Downfield Throw

Smith best deep throw

Good luck telling 2013-16 Alex Smith to make this throw. LAWD.

5. Deshone Kizer

Efficiency Score: 1.50

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.18.08 AM

Is this the future heir to Green Bay once Aaron Rodgers decides to hang it up at age 50? I’m not sure, but Deshone Kizer got screwed in his rookie season in Cleveland.

Kizer deep (screwed by Coleman)

Big things were expected from the Browns’ receivers last year, or bigger than previous years. They rewarded Kizer with 18 accurate incompletions, the third highest mark of its kind. A rookie seeing the 6th highest rate of tight windows on deep throws would be fine if Hue Jackson didn’t decide to bench the QB twice.

Kizer deep (Backshoulder)

Still, Kizer’s lone season with the Browns was phenomenal downfield. He threw less deep picks than expected, and was the most accurate quarterback on throws of 20-24 yards, as well as the 3rd most accurate on tight window passes and in clean pockets.

His inability to diagnose coverages anchored the Browns offense (among many other things), but his peak play suggests he’s a really talented quarterback with great arm talent if put in the right hands. I’m not sure Mike McCarthy qualifies, but the Packers are getting another excellent deep passer at their disposal.

Best Downfield Throw

Kizer best deep throw

There are “better” ones, but this one is rare in that it’s actually caught. And it’s Kizer’s first throw of the game. The accuracy is insanely good.

4. Matt Ryan

Efficiency Score: 1.57

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.24.49 AM

It’s interesting how a season after everyone said Matt Ryan was a top 5 quarterback, no one says that anymore. Just goes to show how people trust raw stats more than anything.

During Ryan’s MVP season in 2016, he had arguably the best system in football. Kyle Shanahan was giving him so many open reads, and the dominance of Julio Jones, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman created the most dangerous offense that year. Ryan wasn’t without fault, though, forcing his receivers to adjust constantly and adding some dropped picks to the mix.

With Steve Sarkisian in 2017, Ryan faced opposite luck, yet, in my eyes, was actually better than in 2016.

Ryan deep (screwed by Julio)

With 18 accurate incompletions and 4 of his 5 deep passes not being his fault, Ryan’s receivers screwed him big time (Surprisingly, Julio Jones was the biggest offender). But his accuracy was still really good, ranking 9th overall, 3rd on throws of 25-29 yards, and 2nd on throws to open windows.

Ryan deep (dime)

Despite a worse offense, Ryan managed to have a really damn good 2017. He’s always been a quality deep passer, and with a tougher task at hand he took it a step up.

Best Downfield Throw

Ryan best deep throw

Matt Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks at moving in the pocket, which was made more abundant without Kyle Shanahan. This is a sublime bomb under pressure on the run.

3. Aaron Rodgers

Efficiency Score: 1.72

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.17.09 AM

It didn’t end the way we wanted it to, but Aaron Rodgers was once again at the top off the quarterback food chain in 2017.

Rodgers deep (arm)

First in accuracy in clean pockets, 3rd into tight windows, 2nd on play action, and first on throws of 30-34 yards, no one is more in control of their offense than Rodgers is. Give him a clean pocket and he will squeeze all the juice out of it until he finds an open receiver. The mobility, arm talent, accuracy, and poise make him the ultimate quarterback.

Not even a lackluster performance against the Panthers (while hurt) dragged him down. The only way Rodgers can get any better than he is right now is if he stayed healthy in 2018.

Best Downfield Throw

Rodgers best deep throw

This was late in the game and didn’t help the Packers come back, but it’s still too good to exclude.

2. Dak Prescott

Efficiency Score: 1.76

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.25.00 AM

What happened to Dak Prescott’s fan base? Everyone who praised him as an MVP candidate in his rookie season haven’t thought as highly of him in his sophomore season.

Prescott was good, not great in 2016. His downfield accuracy was solid, but not up to the task of the veteran quarterbacks, and his ability to throw into tight windows had ways to go.

So be surprised when I say Prescott was outstanding on deep passing in 2017.

Dak Deep (More Pressure)

Dak Deep (Pressure)

What really stood out with Prescott is he was much more aggressive and in control of his offense. He was the most accurate quarterback on play action, 4th most under pressure, 2nd most on throws of 16-19 yards, and first on throws of 40+ yards. This was not the rookie season Dak Prescott.

Dak’s accuracy was phenomenal in spite of worse pass protection, more tight windows, and unreliable receivers. I can’t speak enough about how good he is under pressure–it reminds me of Tony Romo.

So don’t believe what you hear. Prescott did a great job managing a worse supporting cast, and was only behind one guy as the most efficient deep passer of 2017.

Best Downfield Throw

Dak Best Deep Throw

Prescott’s feet aren’t even balanced as he’s releasing this ball. Phenomenal, phenomenal quarterback under pressure.

And the most efficient downfield passer of 2017 is…..

1. Jacoby Brissett

Efficiency Score: 1.85

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 5.25.06 AM

You are reading this correctly. This is the Tom Brady backup that was the absolute best deep ball passer of 2017.

I wasn’t high on the Indianapolis Colts trading for Jacoby Brissett back when it happened, but man I was wrong. It’s a shame that Andrew Luck exists, because Brissett is a starting caliber quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett was the most accurate downfield passer of 2017, and the most accurate into tight windows by 12.2 decimal points!!! In almost every stat he ranked inside the top 10, impressive considering the cast he was given.

Brissett deep (Hilton screws him)

Brissett Deep (Dime can't be hauled in)

Jacoby Brissett’s receivers turned 31.7% of his deep passes into inaccurate completions, easily the largest rate in the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project. TY Hilton was the main victim, failing to haul in passes someone of his reputation should easily bring in. The only help Brissett got was that he had the highest amount of play action of any quarterback downfield.

I can’t believe what I saw. Jacoby Brissett is a quality quarterback and an unworldly downfield passer. I enjoyed every throw he made last year, and it seemed like each new throw impressed me more than the last, regardless if it was caught or dropped. He’s not a guy on the level of Luck, but that’s because Luck’s level is insane!

Bottomline, no quarterback was more successful throwing the ball deep than Jacoby Brissett. He is the best downfield passer of the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project.

Best Downfield Throw

Brissett best deep throw

I don’t care if this was in the snow and it’s nearly impossible to see. I don’t care if it wasn’t caught. This is one of the greatest throws I’ve ever seen. All the receiver needs to do is get his feet in bounds and this is a touchdown. He cannot. Nevertheless, this was too good to be left out. Jacoby Brissett kicks ass.

With all that wrapped up, let’s take a look at the final results on the Deep Ball Wall.

Screen Shot 2018-03-27 at 2.59.19 AM

I appreciate you guys taking the time to read this, and hope to see you again next year!

Special Thanks to:

Andre Weingarten for helping me calculate some of the stats

My twin brother Joe for making the Deep Ball Project logo

And all of you guys for staying patient!

(Featured image via

2 thoughts on “The 2017-18 Deep Ball Project

  1. Thxs for giving me ammo to fight of the Kirk Cousins trolls, Super happy to get Alex Smith, a much more accurate passer then Cousins could ever wish to be. Cousins couldn’t hit a receiver in stride if his life depended on it. He should do well in Fatboy Gruden’s offense.


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